Sunday, February 24, 2013

Boys Postseason Prediction

The Leland and Gray Rebels finish the regular season 15-5 and enter the postseason as the third seed in Division III boys basketball.  Their first playoff game will be against the fourteenth seeded Peoples Academy (5-15) at Leland and Gray, Wednesday, February 27.  It's hard to compare these two teams based on mutual opponents, Peoples being from up north and Leland and Gray being from the south.

Although Peoples has a subpar record, they are not necessarily a team to be overlooked.  Their team points per game (PPG) average is 44.3, compared to the Rebels impressive 55.9.  However, when it comes to PPG allowed, Peoples has an average 48.8 whereas the Rebels have a 44.8 - only four points in difference. 

This leads me into my second observation.  Peoples has played teams from  northern Vermont in their regular season schedule, teams such as BFA Fairfax, Northfield, Lake Region, Winooski and the undefeated Williamstown.  These are some teams (to name a few) that have given the Rebels problems for many years.  A northern or central team has won the Division III basketball state championship every year for the past nine years.  In fact, the last southern Vermont teams to even make it to the state championship were our own Rebels and Arlington Eagles in 2003 when we lost 59-50.

Therefore, based on historical figures of recent years, northern teams in Vermont have had ultimately successful finishes.  Although Peoples has lost to these teams multiple times over the course of the season, their defensive stats when compared to the Rebels' show little difference.  If the Rebels look to succeed in the playdowns, they're going to have to realize that "fourteenth seed" is just a number and not necessarily a true representation of Peoples' ability to play ball.  I think that if both teams play to their best potential, this will be an evenly matched ball game. 

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